Trendlines, Scalps & Swings

Major League Pitchers Know How to Bring It!

2010-10-20T21:32:00.002-04:00

I love the comparisons between trading and life. There are so many similarities of how trading imitates life it's intriguing to no end.

Being an avid baseball fan, I really enjoy the parallel universe between baseball and trading. The geometry of the field/chart; runs scored/points made; working the count/managing the trade; offense-defense/long-short; singles/1st scale...and the list goes on and on.

But one of my favorite comparisons is between a major league pitcher and a trader. Both need passion and a desire to hone their craft which takes many, many years to do. Some are "naturals" as they don't require as much time to become competent. But most need a lot of time, hard work, on going effort and experience in order to reach dominance.

A pitcher's mechanics and the ability to deliver a variety of pitches in the strike zone with command is an art form and takes years to perfect. You learn as you gain more time on the field, working through different situations, understanding your opponents strengths and weaknesses as well as your own while continually smoothing out the nuances of the delivery in order to become an effective competitor.

The traders journey is very similar to that of a pitcher in the majors. Each day/ballgame starts with a plan; we use certain setups/pitches that are delivered as the situation warrants; our trade execution/delivery needs to remain consistent no matter the volatility/action in the game; stay calm and cool while not getting too high or too low no matter what happens. Stick with your plan, and if your not getting "the call" or getting hit hard, make adjustments.

It's all about making a consistent delivery, commanding "the zone", doing the same thing over and over again proficiently, always searching for and identifying nuances within your game and tweaking the established and documented successes with slight adjustments that make you better at your craft.

Major league pitchers know how to bring it but it takes years of practice. Traders are no different as we learn how to trade. We learn how the "bring it" but it takes years to perfect the delivery and to ground the emotional aspect of our game. Eventually we can and will become complete pitchers/traders. It just takes a few hundred games to get there.

Trade Well !

ps: God I'm enjoying this MLB post season! Love the team match-ups in both leagues. In the end...Go NL!

The Journey of a Trader - Order Flow

2010-10-07T20:14:00.004-04:00

I learned early in my trading career and as I've mentioned a few times in this blog, "trading is not a destination, but a journey". There is always something new to learn and another layer of understanding that can be added to our methodology / trading plan.

As I've traveled this journey, I come across certain strategies that resonate with me. They immediately make sense and make an impact "ha,ha" moment enough to want to learn more.

A few months ago I discovered Market Profile and more recently, I began learning more about order flow. I am in the process of understanding more about these to aspects of trading as I think it is a key component to add to my quiver of strategies.

Additionally, I've come to the realization that my trading plan is not what it should be. I do not have enough structure in the plan to maintain a necessary disciplinary road map to follow as the market provides setups and structure.

Although I am a discretionary trader, I must have better structure (trading plan) in order to "play the game". Learning and applying order flow and MP to the plan seems like a natural fit in this journey.

Trade Well !

Writers Block & Trader Mind Flow

2010-09-21T14:34:00.005-04:00

Hard to believe I have not posted since May. I think it was a combination of blog boredom, writers block and an opportunity to turn down the noise.

During the "flash crash", although I did not get hurt, it did contribute to creating more "noise" in my head. It threw my thinking of market flow into turmoil and I had to back off from trading for a few days.

I ended up turning off my head and refrained from reading regular blogs I visited daily, abstaining from daily, intraday trading, put down the trading books / manuals and just settled my neurons and synapses with mindless thought, soft music and outdoor activities.

I've found over the last year or so that it's always good to back away from trading once in a while whether for a few hours, days or even weeks. For me, it really recharges my batteries, helps me reset my brain and definitely makes me a better trader when I come back to the trading platform.

Over the summer, not only did I watch the Chicago Cubs "die on the vine", I found myself taking nice breaks from short-term trading and did not trade every day, took a couple weeks off each month and rediscovered spreads on a more regular basis (using almost exclusively the RUT). This kept me engaged with the market yet in a low-noise, longer-term position reality.

As my trading career advances, I continue to find the stepping stones to the promised land of profitable consistency albeit it's a long and slow road. Learning about oneself, understanding market action, tying in trading with personality while understanding and controlling emotions is a common thread in the ongoing journey among traders.

Limiting / eliminating the noise and outside biases provided by chat rooms, blogs, Twitter, etc. can really make a difference, at least with this trader.

So with some new inspirations, fresh perspectives and my never dieing passion for trading, I submit this post as recognition of my new found ability to uncork the writers block bottle and trade with an open, free flowing mind.

I'm sure another break is in my not too distant future.

Trade Well !

More Black Swan Analysis

2010-05-22T17:54:00.002-04:00

The Black Swan event of May 6, 2010 was so over-the-top, of anomalous proportion and had such a far reaching impact on so many traders that the waves of repercussion are still being felt and will be talked about for weeks, months and years to come.

Here's another informative post which, in this traders opinion, puts into perspective how and why we need to be nimble and not get married to an opinion of what Mr. Market is doing or going to do.

http://ibankcoin.com/chessnwine/2010/05/20/the-crash-that-never-was/

Thanks to @cginthehouse (fellow EWS member) for the RT Tweet from @chessNwine!

Trade Well!

Attribute of a Good Trader - The Waiting

2010-05-15T10:02:00.002-04:00

One of the most important things to do as a trader is develop patience. Once we establish patience as part of our disciplinary process, we will find and see those trade set-ups that will earn us the money...which is the reward for our patience.

"The waiting is the hardest part"

Trade Well !

Learn One Thing and Get Good

2010-05-15T09:53:00.003-04:00

This commentary was first posted in the Eminiwizard member site.

Here’s a good article with good advice and one that ‘E’ (The Eminiwizard), as well as a few other E-Nation members subscribe to.

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/editorial/How-To-Succeed-at-Trading-81039.cfm

When I first started trading, I was like a kid in a candy shop. I was trying to find my way and wasn’t sure what instrument I wanted to trade let alone what was best for me and my personality. I had no one to help guide me.

As I searched for my trading personality and the right trading instrument fit, I culled my many trading books, trading blogs and webinars, I kept hearing/reading a common message; “learn one thing and get good at it”, and then, maybe add another instrument later.

My initial attraction was towards stocks (too slow, good for my IRA). Then I tried options (better gratification, loved the idea of
‘the Greeks” but something was missing). Next was selling spreads (I liked it, made sense and still trade them on occasion but there was still some void). Finally, I discovered the E-Mini’s and it “clicked” with me (fast, analytical, multiple set-ups/strategies, methodology driven, quick money potential). This was the instrument that I wanted to concentrate on.

So, after about 1 1/2 -2 years of trading stocks, options/spreads AND futures, I have for all intense and purposes only been trading the ES for about the past 24 months.

This trading biz is the toughest thing I’ve ever tried to learn. It’s hard enough to learn how to trade, let alone how to trade multiple instruments. Some people can do it, I cannot. I need to concentrate on one thing and get good at it and that is what I am doing with the ES. Progress is being made as consistency in making, not losing money is being achieved…finally!

Passion, persistence, discipline, focus and patience. These are key elements of becoming an effective and successful trader. And it certainly helps to attain competence when one has a good mentor(s). E-Nation is a good place to be.

Trading is a journey, not a destination. Unless we continue to learn and grow in this biz, we will never realize the full potential to master the market, or at least understand it enough to make a decent living, stay out of trouble and avoid “working at Walmart”.

Trade Well !

May 6 Panic Play-by-Play

2010-05-08T18:59:00.001-04:00

www.ETFreplay.com/backtest.aspx from Frank1970 on Vimeo.

Get Back on the Horse

2010-05-07T09:27:00.002-04:00

Here's a very good video from Don Miller regarding the May 6, 2010 market. We learn from it, have safe guards in place and move on.

Here's an article regarding the "mystery trader" of the May 6th market plunge.

Trade Well !

May 6, 2010 - Experience

2010-05-06T21:31:00.011-04:00

We don't see days like this very often but when we get them, a lot of traders make fast profits, fast loses and certainly get an education.

During the fall of 2008, I was about six months into trading the ES. I really enjoyed this trading instrument with all its volatility and personality. But there was so much to learn about it as we as myself.

I got hurt during that month of September that will forever be etched in my trading skull. I held and prayed my long would eventually go in my favor. It didn't. The market continued to tank and eventually I reached my threshold of pain and got out. It could have been worse, but with more seasoning and screen time, I would not have taken such a heavy hit. I was discouraged but my passion to learn this business and to achieve consistent success made me persevere.

Today I used that experience to my advantage. I've seen this extreme volatility before (not quite this fast and far in such a short period of time). I had a slight trip up but found myself backing off the pedal, evaluating and taking advantage of a couple long opportunities.

Experience. Putting in the screen time, observing various ebbs and flows of price action, watching price reaction during high and low volatility periods, developing a feel and intuition about the market. All this comes with time, patience and experience. Although I did not make a killing today, I was able to stay out of major trouble.

Because of the wonderful mentoring from the EminiWizard combined with past experiences, I was able to observe, participate and learn a little bit more.

Here's an interesting audio from the S & P Pit during the plunge and the hyper activity that took place.

Same audio from the pit but with live price action on a chart. Nice perspective.

What a day.

Additionally, Fari Hamzei shared his chat room transcript from May 6th on Twitter over the weekend and I wanted to include it in this record as part of the "historical" record.
We'll be talking about this day for years to come.

Trade Well !

Ramblings From "Taurus the Bull"

2010-04-25T21:35:00.005-04:00

The bulls continue to run and don't seem to be ready to relinquish control anytime soon. And why should they since according to Newsweek mag, "America's Back - The Remarkable Tale of Our Economic Turnaround" everything is just fine with the economy.

Well, I certainly don't buy it (no pun intended) but one can't deny or stand in the way of the trend. Pre-market for intraday trading, I develop my plan, identify the possible range while trying to react and change direction if and when I'm wrong.

With my consistency building, loses under control and R/R better managed, I'm feeling much more confident these days. Pretty much since the first of the year, I'm seeing the market better, patience has greatly improved and methodology is continually being honed.

The Emini Wizard System and the daily live audio/charts by 'E' has also helped advance my trading ability. In addition, the great, supportive community within E-Nation is a wonderful way to spend the day as we learn and wait patiently for the next set-up.

So Dr. Brett of Traderfeed is taking a hiatus from his blog. I discovered the good Doctor about three years ago and have been a consistent reader of his blog as well as an owner of 2 of his three books. He is a class act and has certainly been an inspiration and big help to this trader. Personally, I believe that some day, (sooner than later) he will be back posting to his blog.

Trading mimics many aspects of life. Being an avid baseball fan, there are many parallels between trading and arguably the best sport on the planet, baseball. Read this article by sports writer Rick Morrissey. Many aspects of "the game" that are mentioned in this fine article are also part of what a trader experiences during her/his game day.

Ever look at speed limit signs along the side of the road as hammer doji's?

No arguing the fact that the bulls are in control and being stubborn. That's the make-up of many of us who are under the sign of Taurus the Bull. But in trading as in life, we can't develop a static bias that would deliver a hurtful blow when, not if, things change.

Enough ramblings. Needed to add something to my blog as I've been a bit remiss to say the least.

Trade Well !

Pattern Continuation

2010-04-05T21:14:00.003-04:00

They say that a trader needs to log approximately 10,000 hours of screen time before s/he develops proficiency. I estimate my logbook to have registered over 6,200 hours during the past four years.

As my eyes observe and study price action, I find myself recognizing more and more "familiar" patterns, further developing the ability to add layers of information, learning to be patient, let trades come to me rather than vice-versa, control emotion, achieve consistency and increase confidence.

This year continues to drive deeper into the black as my trade selection and management has improved greatly. The hours of experience gained are beginning to translate into consistency and week over week progress.

Last year, there were moments when I felt I "clicked", only to be slapped down by the market. "Your not ready" yelled Mr. Market as "it" toyed and tortured my psyche. I persevered, continued to observe, take notes and work towards understanding more so I could improve my trading status.

I've said it before, this is the most difficult thing I have ever tried to learn and get good at. I'm getting there albeit slowly but progress is realized. About another two years of consistent screen time and study and the coveted 10,000 hour plateau should be reached.

For every 500 hours logged, I believe I climb one step higher towards my understanding and proficiency. It's all about passion, persistence, patience, ongoing study and determination to succeed as a trader. It's a pattern I established about four years ago and plan to continue.

Trade Well !

Dr. Brett Steenbarger - Identifying Trading Volatility, Range & Targets

2010-04-02T22:26:00.003-04:00

Dr. Brett Steenbarger, author of Traderfeed recently posted a series of very helpful articles regarding target identification. A couple of the posts are expected to be available only for a limited time. I am preserving the series of posts in my blog as a source of for future reference.

Thank you Dr. Brett for your educational posts. They continue to inspire, motivate and assist all levels of traders and help us improve our odds to succeed in this difficult business.

Here follows the series of posts from Traderfeed:

Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Every Trade Idea Includes Hidden Volatility Assumptions

This will begin a series of short posts on price targets, why they're helpful, and how I calculate them.

While many traders pay close attention to their entries, they don't always crystallize their ideas as to how far the market is likely to move in their direction. Without a clear idea of price targets, it's easy to exit positions too quickly or overstay your welcome and see moves in your favor reverse against you.

Price targets incorporate assumptions not only about directionality, but also volatility. This is where most traders get hung up: they focus on market direction, but their assumptions regarding volatility are hidden--and often inaccurate.

This is a very important concept: every trade idea embeds a hypothesis about *both* direction and volatility. When we calculate the risk and reward on a trade, we're making assumptions about how and how far the market could move in our direction. Bad calls on volatility could be as problematic over time as bad directional calls.

My goal, in part, is to make you more aware, more conscious of your volatility projections when you hold a trade toward a chosen objective or place a stop out point away from your expected direction.

So how can we adjust for volatility? There are two ways, and those will be topics for the next posts in this series.

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Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Defining Effective Price Targets With the Previous Day's Data

In my recent post, I emphasized that every trade idea that includes risk and reward necessarily makes assumptions about both market direction and volatility. Traders encounter problems when they are right about market direction, but either underestimate volatility (and leave potential profits on the table) or overestimate it (and see winning trades reverse on them and often become losers).

So how does one define effective price targets that have a reasonable, known probability of getting hit?
The market itself provides us with some valuable targets.

Going back to late 2002 in the S&P 500 Index (SPY), for example, we find that only about 12% of all days are inside days. The odds are quite good that today's market will take out yesterday's high or low price. If we open somewhere within yesterday's trading range, we can then use our readings of evolving market direction (sector behavior, intermarket relationships, sentiment) to handicap the odds of hitting one of those price levels before touching the other one.

The advantage of using yesterday's data to frame today's targets is that we're allowing the most recent estimate of volatility guide our expectations about today's volatility. We can then update today's relative volume as the market is trading to modify those expectations as needed.

For instance, if we define yesterday's average price simply as the average of yesterday's high and low, we find out that, since late 2002, we've traded today at yesterday's average price about 60% of the time. That is useful information for those occasions where we open above or below yesterday's average price, but cannot sustain buying or selling. We can then target a reversion to the average price of the previous day, because we cannot sustain value higher.

Interestingly, the statistics are similar for weekly data, so that we can expect this week's trade to take out either last week's high or low and can expect a high proportion of occasions in which the current week's trade will touch last week's average price. This can be helpful in framing targets for swing trades.

The odds of exceeding highs or lows are even higher when we frame overnight highs and lows as initial targets for futures contracts. Well over 90% of days take out either their overnight high or low, so when we open within the overnight range, a worthwhile initial trade is to play for one of those levels once we see evidence of a directional bias to the day's trade.

The beauty is that, in using these levels, we automatically adjust assumptions regarding volatility based on how the market has traded most recently.

In my next post we'll see how we might build upon that.

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Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Bonus Post: Calculating Price Targets

As I mentioned earlier today, in appreciation of the generous readership, I thought I would share some of my ideas and methods for calculating price targets. If you're new to this topic, it would be helpful to review my prior posts on hidden volatility assumptions and defining effective price targets with the previous day's data.

What we saw in that latter post was that using the previous day's high, low, and average prices provides us with relatively high probability targets for the current trading day.

In my own work, I do not use the average price as defined in the post (H+L/2). Rather, I use (H+L+2C/4). This is the "pivot" level that I post each morning for SPY via Twitter. This overweights the closing price relative to the prior day's high and low, so that--on average--the pivot price will be closer to the current day's open. Going back to late 2002 (N=1894 trading days), my Excel calculations show that we have touched the previous day's pivot on 70% of all trading days.

For this reason, the previous day's high, low, and pivot prices are key near-term price targets for my trading. As I mentioned previously, even closer price targets are the overnight high and low prices from the ES futures.

If I anticipate a slow trading day with a narrow price range and we open in the middle of the overnight and prior day's ranges, I will look for trades to take out the overnight high or low price and then the previous day's high or low. If I anticipate a slow trading day and we open nicely above or below the overnight and prior day's pivot levels (for overnight "pivot" I use the day's VWAP), I look for a move back to VWAP and then the previous day's pivot if buying or selling can't be sustained.

If I anticipate an average or busier trading day, I look toward more distant profit targets. Below is one way of calculating those that builds on the previous post.

FORMULAS FOR CALCULATING PRICE TARGETS

* Let us call the difference between yesterday's high and low prices R, for range. That means that the difference between yesterday's average price and yesterday's high is 1/2 R and the difference between yesterday's average price and yesterday's low is 1/2 R. (We're using average price, not the pivot level, for this calculation. More on pivot-based calculations in the next post in the series).

* If we calculate (yesterday's average price + 3/4 R), we will get a price level above yesterday's high that we'll call R1. If we calculate (yesterday's average price - 3/4 R), we will get a price level below yesterday's low that we'll call S1.

* Going back to late 2002, the odds of hitting R1 or S1 during today's trade are 67%. Two-thirds of the time, we'll hit R1 or S1. It's a high probability target if volume is average or better.

* If we calculate (yesterday's average price + R), we will get a price level above R1 that we'll call R2. If we calculate (yesterday's average price - R), we will get a price level below S1 that we'll call S2.

* Going back to late 2002, the odds of hitting R2 or S2 during today's trade are 41%. We want to see above average relative volume (and today's volume > yesterday's volume) to assume that we'll touch R2 or S2.

* If we calculate (yesterday's average price + 5/4R), we will get a price level above R2 that we'll call R3. If we calculate (yesterday's average price - 5/4R), we will get a price level below S2 that we'll call S3.

* Going back to late 2002, the odds of hitting R3 or S3 during today's trade are 26%. We would need to see significantly above average relative volume (and today's volume significantly > yesterday's volume) to assume that we'll touch R3 or S3.

VARIATIONS OF THE ABOVE WORTH RESEARCHING:

* Instead of using yesterday's average price as a base for calculation, you can use the traditional pivot formula of (H+L+C)/3.

* Instead of using yesterday's average price as a base for calculation, you can use today's open. That is especially helpful when the overnight session leads to an opening price far from yesterday's average price.

* Instead of using R values based on yesterday's trading range, use the average trading range from the prior N days. My research shows some benefit to going out several days, but returns are diminishing out to a five-day lookback.

Regardless of your calculation method, you will find that R increases as the market's volatility increases and decreases as the market's volatility wanes. This automatically adjusts your price targets for the market's most recent volatility.

Going back to late 2002, yesterday's volatility correlates with today's volatility by a whopping .75. That means that we can predict more than half of the variance in today's volatility simply by knowing the prior day's trading range. If we go out to a five-day period, the correlation between the prior five-day's average range and today's range has been .80.

Once you become good at tracking today's volume relative to yesterday's (or the prior five days'), you can make very reasoned estimates as to which levels we're likely to hit during the day. That considerably strengthens our exits and helps us maximize our risk/reward.

This post and the next one (tomorrow) will remain on the blog for a limited time. If the research is of interest, you might want to print out the post or copy the relevant data.

Thanks again for all the interest and support--

Brett

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Friday, April 2, 2010
Bonus Post #2: A Different Method for Calculating Volatility-Adjusted Price Targets

My recent bonus post explained one of the ways that I've found helpful to think about and calculate price targets for the trading day. As background for this topic, please check out the posts on defining effective price targets and the importance of volatility in trade planning.

This will be my second and final bonus post on the topic. As with the earlier one, I will be keeping it on the site for a limited time as a thanks to current readers. If the ideas interest you, you might want to print the post out or jot down the relevant ideas.

In this post, I will explain how I calculate the daily price targets that I post each morning via Twitter. I'm in the process of tweaking my weekly target calculations and will wait for a future occasion to share those.

CALCULATIONS

The calculations begin with the day's pivot level, as I define it:

Pivot = (H + L +2C)/4

Today's pivot price is defined as the average of yesterday's high price plus yesterday's low price plus two times yesterday's closing price. That gives us an approximation of yesterday's average trading price.

Going back to late 2002, we touch the pivot level during today's trade on 70% of all trading days. This is a useful "reversion" target if we open above the pivot, but cannot sustain buying or if we open below pivot and cannot sustain selling. (The current day's VWAP for the index futures contracts is generally my first reversion target).

As mentioned in the earlier post, the overnight high and low price and the prior day's high and low are generally my first price targets. Along with the pivot level and VWAP, those are generally targets for the first trades I will place during the day. Once I know those targets, it's a matter of: 1) discerning the balance between buying and selling sentiment, as well as sector and intermarket dynamics, to gauge direction; 2) assessing today's volume relative to yesterday's (and the prior five days' average volume) to gauge evolving volatility; 3) executing the trade in the identified direction at a price that provides a favorable level of reward relative to risk; and 4) holding the trade to the price target most likely to be hit given the market's current strength and volatility.

(The above paragraph is a concise description of how I trade on the day time frame).

The price targets above the prior day's high are identified as R1, R2, and R3. The price targets below the prior day's low are identified as S1, S2, and S3.

To calculate this levels, we need an estimate of recent volatility. That estimate in my calculations is the median daily price range for the past five trading sessions in SPY. Thus, each day we calculate the Daily Range: DR=((H-L)/O)*100. That is the difference between the day's high and low prices divided by the opening price multiplied times 100 (to give us a percentage). The Volatility estimate (V) for our calculations is the median of the prior five days' DR values.

As I mentioned earlier, going back to 2002, the median volatility for the prior five days correlates with today's volatility by .80. Knowing V gives us a good idea for today's DR.

So now we can define our R and S price targets:

R1 = Pivot + (.60*V)
S1 = Pivot - (.60*V)

Going back to 2002, we touch R1 or S1 about 84% of the time. If the volume today is anything like yesterday's volume, R1 or S1 should be hit during the day.

R2 = Pivot + (.80*V)
S2 = Pivot - (.80*V)

Going back to 2002, we touch R2 or S2 about 66% of the time. If today's volume is above average, we should hit R2 or S2 during the day.

R3 = Pivot + V
S3 = Pivot - V

Going back to 2002, we touch R3 or S3 about 50% of the time. If today's volume is meaningfully above average, we should hit R3 or S3 during the day.

R4 = Pivot + 1.2 V
S4 = Pivot - 1.2 V

Going back to 2002, we touch R4 or S4 about 36% of the time. We need to see volume today much greater than the recent average volume to have confidence in hitting R4 or S4.

Obviously, you could define R5 and S5 levels (and beyond) accordingly for relatively rare occasions of high volume trending and range breakouts.

NOTES ON THE CALCULATIONS

These price levels were calculated and tested empirically in Excel using historical data. They are not based on any Fib or any other numerical scheme.

A worthwhile tweak on the above methodology would be to use today's Open price in lieu of the Pivot for the calculations.

Another tweak substitutes weekly data for daily data to use for swing trading.

Another tweak is to adapt the formulas to different trading markets.

Knowing how far a market is likely to move in a direction is invaluable in guiding the placement of stop and exit levels and calculating the risk/reward parameters of a trade. By adjusting price targets for recent volatility, traders can adapt quickly to faster and slower market conditions. The price targets are not necessarily hard exit levels; rather, they provide anticipation of where those proper exits are likely to occur.

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Friday, April 02, 2010
Clarifications Regarding Price Target Calculations

I've been inundated with questions regarding the first and second posts detailing methods of calculating price targets. Here are responses to the more common questions:

* All calculations are in Excel; Excel functions will calculate medians and averages for you. No complicated spreadsheet programming or statistical software is needed;

* The data come from my archives, which is why they go back to late 2002. It's a sample of convenience that cuts across a variety of market conditions;

* Other values can be used, and I encourage readers to experiment with their own formulas. In place of the day's average price, you could use the pivot level for the day or the day's VWAP. A promising variation is to use today's open and calculate price targets around that;

* The basic approach from my second post can be used for any stock or ETF. You'll simply need to adjust the constant in the formulas for R1/S1, R2/S2, R3/S3, etc. Instead of using .60, .80, and 1.0 as in SPY, for instance, you'll need to define the proper constants for each market;

* Using weekly data instead of daily data will give you price targets for the following week. (Those constants need to be adjusted as well). That is very useful for swing traders. I post weekly price targets for SPY each Monday morning via Twitter;

* Formulas for the ES futures will look different, because the pivot and volatility calculations will incorporate overnight trading data. With SPY, there is no overnight data embedded in the formulas.

Hope that's helpful. My goal in providing the formulas is to encourage you to think of trading in a different way, with an emphasis on exits and targets, not just entries. If my posts raise questions and lead you to explore the data on your own and find relationships different from the ones that I have shared, I will have succeeded in my mission!

Thanks as always for the interest and support.

Brett

In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Lion

2010-03-27T09:56:00.002-04:00

My trading this year continues in a positive direction as I am consistently making weekly gains. Profits are not huge but they are non the less profits and I am experiencing consistency.

Ever since regrouping my thoughts and re-focusing between Thanksgiving and the end of January this year, I have really seen the market well and been "at peace with it".

In hindsight I think I was fighting the market, forcing too many trades. Now I am more inclined to let the market tell me what it's doing and let the trades come to me, rather than the other way around. The former was a recipe for inconsistency and confidence killing.

Patience, observing market flow, acting on what we see not what we think are important lessons to learn and utilize during our trading day. There are generally 1-3 "good" trades per day. As 'E' says, all we need is one good trade per day. It's there for us to take.

So I'm looking for this year to be like March is known to be. "In like a lamb and out like a lion". It's starting off fresh and innocent enough and will, with expectations of success, likely finish with a roar. Stay tuned.

Trade Well !

Price Action Cycle of Emotion

2010-03-13T15:14:00.005-05:00

Here's a dandy example of how trader emotion creeps into the market as price action matures. Thanks to Brian Shannon and alphascanner for the reference. He also offers (IMHO) a must read book 'Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes'. Brian really helps the trader understand timeframe relationships, market emotion and much more.

Trade Well !

Trading Resource

2010-03-13T10:26:00.003-05:00

Here's an interesting spreadsheet(shared/posted by @brettdavid) I stumbled across. Thanks to @jaymaven for introducing me to another select field of stones to look under. There are many gold nuggets of info out there. We need to continually mine for those precious resources as we journey thru our trading career.

Trade Well !

Miss Trade Interviews "E", aka; The Emini Wizard

2010-03-13T00:27:00.003-05:00

It's hard to believe I have not posted in my blog for a month. What better way to try and get back into a weekly posting habit than to share this interview recently posted by www.misstrade.wordpress.com who interviewed "E", founder and bigger than life keeper and educator of Emini Wizard System. Always humble, giving and helpful, this interview is a nice snap shot of what we get to experience on a daily bases in E-Nation's membership trading room. I suspect EWS is on the verge of going viral! Enjoy.

Dennis Parmalee talks Futures Education and Trading with Matt Davio @MissTrade from miss trade on Vimeo.

Trade Well !

Move the Rock

2010-02-12T17:29:00.001-05:00

I continue to see the market well, being patient and letting trades come to me. Smaller position sizes and taking smaller chunks has helped me focus and capture more profits. Last two weeks all days were in the black. Move the rock (profits) nice and steady.

Emini Wizard system has upgraded the chat room by using the Omnovia platform. Awesome chat room now with not only written commentary by E but also by members.

In addition, the EWS chat room now has audio. E has begun talking through various observations, what to look for, the whys and whats behind market movement. EWS has taken the next big leap in trader education and this trader feels fortunate to have signed on last July.

Really nice to see the membership base growing and the EWS tools of learning developing into a dynamic forum. The group of members we have are helping each other learn, sharing observations and respectful of each other. Great environment for learning how to trade.

So learning how to move that rock is hard. But with passion, persistence, patience, EWS and the community of traders, moving the rock is getting easier and it's going further with each push.

Profiling Is Good

2010-02-02T17:28:00.002-05:00

My trading continues to be fairly consistent as I am seeing and feeling the market better. I've recently got around to reading "Markets and Market Logic". I've had this book as an e-book for months but just got around to reading it. It's now on my "must read" list as it explains the auction process and has helped me see and anticipate the market in a more organized manner.

Market Profile is a strategy I've been aware of for months but have not paid too much attention to it until recently. I am studying the use of, and incorporating MP into my trading strategy. I believe adding MP, it will help pool other strategies I use into a more effective, synergy driven trading plan. For this reason, I believe "Profiling is Good".

Lately I've been targeting smaller profit objectives, using smaller positions and focusing on combo strategies as outlined by the EminiWizard. My trading is "feeling" more focused, planned and confident as results are bearing this out.

The journey to learn how to trade well is ongoing, personal growth advances and trading continues to be a passion.

Trade Well !

EOM Log

2010-01-29T13:35:00.002-05:00

It's the end of the month and am happy to report that I had a relatively good month. After limiting outside distractions and focusing more on my trading habits, I believe I am making more progress in seeing and "feeling" the market.

Documenting my trades outside of this blog has been very helpful. I'm able to better document trades, identify strengths and weaknesses thus adjusting my emotions and trading posture.

My patience has improved, my profit objectives have been more reasonable and more consistency has been realized. Don't get me wrong, this is still difficult. But my journey to becoming a good, consistent trader is evolving in a positive direction.

So the last trading day is upon us and I can look back and say the start of 2010 has been good. Not great, but good. As long as I have the passion and continue to realize progress with my trading, I look forward to better and better EOM reports.

Trade Well !

Big Candles

2010-01-21T19:18:00.002-05:00

I've been working on holding back on any trades except for the C/O and gap set-ups during the first hour. The volatility is generally too great and it's to hard for me to change my mind in a fast market.

Lately I have found much more consistency and success after the first hours range has been established and the market settles down. Combo plays can be a clue but I'm finding I'm much better off waiting for "easier" set-ups.

Gave a shot at a long (long-shot) in the 1118 support area after a potential set-up appeared but the market wasn't ready to throw me a bone. Got stopped out and waited for the next trade until the 1112-1110 bottom was hit and tested before getting long and riding the entire position up to 18's with 1.25 trailing stop as I had to leave for the afternoon matinee of Avatar (awesome movie).

There was a gap fill from 12/31-1/4 of 1119.25-1113.25 that was hanging out there until it filled today. Should have been a clue for me before getting long at 1118's. The short play once the support in the 1119 area was tested and broken was the trade to ride lower before considering the long.

Watch out for BIG candles and the first hour. They can be a menace to planned trading...at least for this trader.

Trade Well !

Stop & Look Around

2010-01-16T10:06:00.004-05:00

I continue to trade daily while limiting outside distractions. I've needed to refocus my attention to what I am doing and thinking during the trading day while establishing better patience and control. My efforts seem to be paying off.

This week kinda clicked for me as I realized my patience and stalking for trades has been much improved "all year" (hey, only 2 weeks into 2010 but it's a start). I've been waiting longer for better, low risk set-ups rather than taking emotional trades "just to get in". The trades will come.

Virtually everyday, there are 1-3 great set-ups that can turn profitable and validate our thought process about the trade. I am now waiting more patiently outside the volatile periods and waiting for the right time to enter once my set-up appears in the cross-hairs.

This business is the toughest thing I have ever tried to learn. But it is a passion and never once have I ever considered quitting. It's about tweaking this and that, rallying resources, stepping back at times, referring to other traders' thoughts, ideas and strategies while developing our own styles. It takes time, lots and lots of time, patience and persistence. But eventually, those of us who persevere will eventually break through and achieve the consistency and satisfaction of cracking this hard shelled nut.

So during the past couple months, I've been a "low rider" when it comes to participation in Eminiwizard chat, TradingConcepts charts and Trader Twitter "Tweets". I just needed to refocus on me for a few weeks, get through the holidays while regaining confidence and further developing patience, market rhythm assessment and trade planning / managment. Sometimes its good to just slow down and take a break.

"Life goes by pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it" - Ferris Bueller

Trade Well !

K10

2010-01-05T11:16:00.002-05:00

After taking an extended vacation through the holiday's, I am back and ready to resume regular trading, blog entries and routine. The time off was needed as the holiday period between Thanksgiving and New Years included dinner parties, out of town travel and enjoying the season with family and friends without too much pressure.

So now it's time to refocus on trading and improving consistency which is 90% mental. Developing patience, being aware of loss aversion and commitment within trades are valuable and important disciplines to practice during each trading day and within the framework of each and every trade.

As I move forward in 2010, I have revisited and re-established a off-line journal to help identify key trading ideas, results and affirmations. Although I will continue to post in this blog, my entries will not necessarily be daily as before which will help me redirect my daily time management.

May our trading be prosperous in 2010.

Trade Well !

Monday Log - Scalps Only

2009-11-24T09:16:00.002-05:00

Tried a couple trades in AM session and called it quits for the day. Difficult to get a read during the higher volatility periods of the first hour. More success in lower volatile periods. Result: -2.0

I'll have minimal postings for the next month / thru the holiday period. Holiday trading periods are difficult, going out of town for 2 weeks and jury duty will make daily postings difficult as the flow will be difficult to keep in rhythm with.

Trade Well !

Tuesday - Friday Log - Expiry Week

2009-11-20T10:48:00.002-05:00

Minimal trading this week and needed a little break from posting in my journal. Tight ranges, expiry week and long periods of time with minimal movement is difficult to engage in all day.

Next week is Thanksgiving holiday. Opportunities for decent trading expected on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday AM session. Enjoy the weekend.

Trade Well !

Monday Log - Expiry Week

2009-11-17T08:58:00.002-05:00

Entered a short trade early in 99's after the open planning for half gap. Internals were strong and there was no significant profit taking after 0900 so I was guarded. Stopped out and turned position around immediately as I went long from 1101's. Scaled out prior to R2/04's and in 06's. Two trade Result: +5.5

Attempted a couple lunch session scalps. Ended as a scratch. Tried one more scalp in late lunch session entering long in 08's and exited high 09's. Result: +3.0

Friday the 20th is expiration Friday. Expect volatility during the week.

Trade Well !

Friday Log - AM Only

2009-11-14T11:06:00.003-05:00

Did not enter a trade until after the 0955 Consumer Sentiment report was announced. Waited for the market to tip it's hand. Went long in 86's once angel formed and price tested the GLO and RTH opening price areas of 87-88's with two point stop. Scaled out in 88's and 89's just under PP. Result: +5.50

Tried a couple more scalps in mid-late morning which cumulatively resulted in a virtual scratch. Closed it up for the day prior to lunch session.

Trade Well !

Thursday Log - EOW & Friday 13th

2009-11-12T16:36:00.004-05:00

Started the day shorting about 18 minutes after market open. Entered in 94's with stop above PP. Stopped out. Waited for market to run its course and started running out of momentum around 1100 level. Re-entered short in 99's and scaled out down to PP. Two trades - Result: Scratch

Tried a couple quick scalps in late morning with little success. One long and short trade each as I played (or they played me) around the PP area of 96. Result: -2.0

Internals and price action was saying short so re-entered short in 95's around 1100 as price had gone thru PP and I shorted on first re-trace back to PP area. Scaled out using combo thinking and S1 as support/profit target areas. Result: +10.0

Came back for the final hour of trading session. Tried a long in 84's thinking it was the bottom as it was a good support area with TWM and S2 but was too early. Stopped out in 83's. Re-entered in 82's as new low was made on lessor down volume and slight divergence in Stochastics and $TICK. Anticipated shorts to take profits before market close. Scaled out in 85's and 87's. Two trades - Result: +4.75

Tomorrow is EOW and Friday the 13th. Just another trading day except for the superstitious?

Trade Well !

Honoring Our Vets on this Veterans Day

2009-11-11T12:43:00.000-05:00

Thank you to those that have and currently do serve in our military!

Tuesday Log - Range as Anticipated

2009-11-10T15:45:00.002-05:00

First trade taken about 10 minutes into the session. Went long from 89's on pullback from penetration of yesterday's close. Scalped out in 91's and 92's. Tried holding out for 93.75 but long tailed doji on the 0950 print got me running. Result: +5.0

Scalped short in late morning only looking for 1-2 points. Sold the 88's and out in the 87's. Was thinking a test of combo low or test of PP but stuck with my plan for 1-2 points. Result: +2.0

Came back for late afternoon stab at another scalp using tight stops and some small profits from earlier in the day. Bought in 90's and closed the trade in 92's. Result: +2.0

The day after trend day played out into a 9.5 range as anticipated. Days like this one needs to be nimble and reverse thinking quickly. Scalps, 1-2 points when price is range bound can add up.

Trade Well !

34th Anniversary of the Sinking of "The Fitz"

2009-11-09T16:31:00.004-05:00

November 10th marks the 34th anniversary of the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald and the loss of all 29 crew members who were aboard her when a severe storm quickly formed over Lake Superior.

Quite an intriguing story and a familiar song which has helped preserve the memory.

Monday Log - Looks Easy in Hindsight...But Tough Day to Trade

2009-11-09T16:21:00.002-05:00

No trades today. The shorts were getting a slow squeeze all day long as the noose tightened around their position without letting go. Pullbacks weren't much more than 2 points if that which makes it very difficult to participate in a low risk entry.

I was waiting for a 3-5 point pullback once the overnight high was penetrated but did not see an entry. The only place I was considering entering was in the overnight high area once price pulled back just after it broke thru.

Tomorrow should be a consolidation day which usually follows a trend day. We'll get 'em tomorrow.

Trade Well !

Take a Look at Success, It's In The...Man in the Mirror

2009-11-07T10:15:00.004-05:00

Sometimes we need to occasionally look in the mirror to bring out the person (trader) within and make necessary adjustments to be successful and consistent. Keep trying as the realization of success is within all of us in whatever we do. It's passion, persistence and continuous adjustments that eventually break down the barrier and get us to where we want to be.

Side Note: Went to see M.J.'s movie "This is It" last week. Awesome! The film really captured the talent this guy had. I was never a big M.J. follower but have developed a new respect and appreciation for what he brought to the music world.

Friday Log - Take What Mr. Market Gives Me

2009-11-07T09:50:00.003-05:00

Somewhat of a frustrating morning session. Employment numbers came out at 0830 creating volatility. I could not get a feel for the market until 1030 when I went long in 59's. Good trade but failed to let it work properly. Scalped for a couple points, entered another long (instead of letting original work) in 60's and stopped out in 58's. Long again in 59's and scalped a couple. Three trades - Result: Scratch

Tried a couple more trades long but had no patience to let the trades work or take small profits. Thinking small combo trades but failed to take what the market was giving me. I see the set ups, entries are in decent lower risk areas but I had a problem closing with a scalp profit...expecting too much in what turned out to be a range day after the first hour or so. Result: -2.0

So closed out the day in late morning. Again, need to re-think my ability to take what the market gives me. I seem to be much better at identifying the entry areas, stops are under control albeit at times too tight and seeing the combos and targets fairly well. I continue to have issues with letting the trades work and/or taking the profits the market is giving me.

Beginning Monday, I'm again going to try and concentrate on just taking 1-2 point profits, let one C ride to try and capture an additional point or so based on entry and combo thinking. The profits are there, I'm just not taking what I'm given by Mr. Market quick enough.

Trade Well !

Thursday Log - Steady

2009-11-05T13:27:00.004-05:00

Missed the opening short fill in 53's for shot at the half gap which played out within a tick...close enough. Waited until after 1000 for next trade. Once price penetrated R1, I waited for pullback to 56's where I entered long. Stopped out in mid 55's as price went back thru R1 deeper than anticipated. Re-entered long in low 55's and worked off combo thinking for quick hit and closed all in 56's. Two trades - Result: +1.50

Re-entered long from low 57's once price again penetrated R1. Scaled out using combo thinking from regular session low with 1/2 off in 59's and balance off just below R1 1/2. Result: +5.25

Worked a scalp over lunch session again using combo thinking. Working off the 56's, waited for retest of 61's, Entered short high 60's and looking for quick hit. Result: +1.25

Making some steady profits this week. Staying out of high volatility situations, anticipating price action, planning the trades are all reasons that contributed to a steady, consistent bagging of profits. We'll work to close it out tomorrow with continued success.

Trade Well!

Wednesday Log - Take it and Run on Fed Day

2009-11-05T11:05:00.003-05:00

Only trading the AM session on Fed day. Generally the morning session is the primary trade(s) before chop settles in as the market waits for the 1415 FOMC announcement.
Took a few scalp trades in the morning session.

Went predominately long with a couple shorts thrown into the mix with longs in 50's, short in 54's and taking a couple points each time. A couple trades did not work but had tight stops and small size once profits were bagged.

Took the rest of the afternoon off as FOMC can be too difficult to play with the high volatility. No methodology identified yet for these high emotional fluctuation periods so best to stay out. Take the profits you've made and wait to play again next day.

Trade Well !

Tuesday Log - Excercise Your Privilege

2009-11-03T15:01:00.004-05:00

Entered long from the open in 32's looking for half gap trade. Did not give it enough time to work as I squeezed my stop under the regualr session low. Re-entered long in 36's on pullback after PP was tested and penetrated. Two trades Result: +2.25

Once yesterday close was penetrated, looked for another pullback to go long. Entered in 37's and again in 34's as I averaged in based on anticipated support and combo. Scaled out in 37's and closed trade once price failed to get much beyond yesterday close. Result: +1.50

Went into scalp mode after 1100 using the dance around the PP and small combos as a guide. Took two trades, both longs but the timing was not as good as I would have liked on the last of the two. Net result: +1.25

Backed off for a while before getting long again near pivot during lunch session. Went swing long in 39's and took some heat as price again dipped below PP. Held the trade until after the PM session began. Had defined targets and plan. Scaled 41's, 42's. Result: +6.0

Tried a couple scalps in PM session with small size and tight stops. Did not fair well as I did not get a good read on the market and probably tried to do too much. Pretty much chopping in a range all day which calls for being nimble and taking small bites. Result: -3.25

Today was our opportunity to exercise our privilege to vote. Not only in the off year election but also in market direction. Although it's an off year election, it could be interesting to see market reaction tomorrow as results are realized and the FOMC announces at 1400.

Trade Well !

Monday Log - FOMC This Week

2009-11-02T15:07:00.002-05:00

Economic reports at 1000 kept me out of the market for the first hour. Missed the move up and waited for long set-up once pullback to PP occurred around 1100. Entered long in 41's and scalped a point on 1/2 position and closed trade prior to the retrace back to 47's. Result: +2.0

Missed the close/open set up first time thru as price slammed down to 26's. Waited for pullback to 32's. Scaled out in 31's and 30's before going flat as price rebound to 35's. Result: +3.0

Reading combo setups better and expanding the range albeit need to take a couple more trades without pressing. Over the weekend I reviewed my rules and working to tighten up my discipline and trade plan for each trade. Of late I've had a problem with trying to get too much on each trade. A review and update on my rules should help refocus my efforts.

Looking for 1-2 points on half of position should be mechanical and absolute. Been giving away too many profitable scalps as I try to squeeze for the extra tick or two. Not worth the irritation.

It's the beginning of the month, earnings begin to wind down and FOMC meets on Tuesday with macro results announced on Wednesday at 1415. I'll be out of the market that afternoon as I meet a fellow trader for our monthly "FOMC" lunch.

Trade Well !

Happy Halloween

2009-10-31T10:55:00.003-04:00

Friday Log - Trending Liquidity on Different Time Frames

2009-10-31T10:04:00.007-04:00

Only took a couple trades in AM as I prepared to participate only in the morning session. First 30-60 minutes was confusion factor as EOW, EOM and eco reports contributed to high volatility. Got in on a couple of scalp trades which was ill-advised due to the quick reversals and difficulty getting a read on what the market wanted to do. Result: -2.0

Tried another long and then a short trade but basically a scratch. Could not hang around after 1130 due to some obligations and as it turns out the day was a 3rd trender in a row. The liquidity has been there as well as the opportunities.

Something that is very clear is not to get caught up in the high volatility swings as was the case in the first hour or so. Long shadows on most 5 min bars with 4-8 point ranges. Unless we capture a fill on an extreme edge, develop a quick profit with a cushion as well as have a little luck in direction, it's extremely difficult to trade this heavy chop. Best to wait for the next opportunity...and it will come. Just need patience.

Always consider views from different time frames. Larger time frames trump smaller.

Trade Well !

Thursday Log - Late But Good to Wait

2009-10-29T23:07:00.002-04:00

Got a late start today. Did not get in front of the trading platform until shortly before 1000. Quickly identified overnight price action and the first half hour of the regular session. Found the respective angel and demon in play and sized up the current price level. After watching for about 5-10 minutes, I felt the market and took a long from the 48's shortly after 1000. Set scaling targets of 52's and 54's. Got too impatient with the 54 target as it hit my order level but was too deep in the queue for a fill. Result: +8.00

Tried a 1:2 ratio short scalp around noon. Went short at 53.75 looking for 2 points but expecting market to continue up due to strong internals. Price dropped about 1.25 from my entry and ended up getting stopped out. Result: -1.0

The last couple days I've waited and sized up the market 15-30 minutes before entering. I continue to monitor the FF and first hour targets on the EWS spreadsheet and continues to provide good guidance for targets. Had to leave after my attempted scalp trade so that was my last trade of the day.

The new planning sheet is complete and now I'm getting familiar with working with it and determining how best to use/prioritize the information. I continue to focus on combo thinking and letting the trades work although I could have done a better job with my final trade leg. Good to wait and get the feel for the market.

World Series is in full swing and enjoying the games so far. The teams match up well on paper and hoping to see some good games. Can't wait for the series to get back to the National League park so we can suspend the lousy DH rule for the next 3 games.

Trade Well!

Wednesday Log - Be Prepared

2009-10-28T20:02:00.004-04:00

Took the first trade at 0945 as I anticipated price to touch 59-60's. Filled short in upper 59's and quickly scaled 1/2 in 57's. Housing report due out at 1000 so had a bit of a cushion and profit to let remaining portion ride. Had heavy target of 52's planned as I anticipated test of overnight lows. Worked the overnight combo range as guide. Result: +9.25

Tried a couple of low risk scalps in lunch session but many distractions during the day. Call the two trades a scratch. Getting more of a scalping mentality after primary move. Been trying for too much during lunch/PM sessions and need to just go for the 1-2 point moves. Watching combo moves during slower periods and seems to be strong indication of opportunity.

Expecting continued volatile market the next couple days as we close out the week and the month. October 28 and 29, 1929 marks one of the great drops in market value in history. October has a reputation for big moves. Good traders anticipate what might happen, what could happen and what to do when something happens. The motto of the Boy Scouts serves traders well..."Be Prepared".

Trade Well!

Tuesday Log - Limited Participation

2009-10-27T16:06:00.003-04:00

Tried one trade late in the morning but hit the wrong side. Went long when it should have been short a point from entry. I'm struggling with a bit of a psyche challenge lately. Not sure what I'm seeing, how to react or getting a feel for the market. Amazing how one week I can trade well, another week not seeing the trades as well. This consistency thing is a tough nut to crack. It's all between the ears.

So limited participation in the market today, finished my new planning worksheet and used it during today's session. I realized to tweaks to the system I need to make to the tool as well as learn to interpret the information plotted. Very promising though.

Trade Well !

Monday Log - No Rhythm

2009-10-26T15:02:00.004-04:00

I could not get into any groove today. No trades taken although I had a couple set that were not filled. Short post today as I work on my revised planning tool which is 90% complete. Plan to put it into action within the next 1-2 days.

Be aware of EOM/EOW price games during the week.

Trade Well !

Rush - Free Will

2009-10-25T08:00:00.000-04:00

Friday Log - Plan

2009-10-23T13:52:00.002-04:00

Missed the primary trade and did not chase it even though price went thru yesterday close set-up. 1000 eco report loomed and did not want to get caught. After that it felt like I would be chasing and did not get a feel for the price action although I "saw" a nice combo I had in my head play out.

Spent the next couple hours working on my new planning tool and will continue off and on over weekend. Have a relaxing weekend all.

Trade Well !

Wednesday & Thursday Log - Combo Post

2009-10-22T19:30:00.002-04:00

Failed to enter Wednesday post and trades so combining with the Thursday post. Wednesday I played the open/close set-up that worked well. Once price tested the prior day close around 89, I entered long on the slight pullback and scaled out in 91's and 93's. Result: +6.0

Scalped a couple other trades over lunch for small gains after feeling the rotation prior to the Beige book. result: +2.25

Thursday no trades made. Working on a new planning tool for me to use in preparation of each trading session. Combining EWS system, key price levels, etc. I currently use a daily worksheet as part of my routine. As with the EWS spreadsheet, my worksheet helps me map out the ES, identify key levels of interest and awareness of scheduled economic reports, major earnings announcements, etc. It is an evolving document as I tweak the layout and information while also making it more automated.

Planning minimal trades on Friday. Probably only the primary AM trade if any.

Trade Well !

Tuesday Log - Recovery Mode

2009-10-20T15:40:00.002-04:00

First worked a long shortly after the open from the 1/2 gap. Quickly stopped out. Once stopped out near yesterday close I failed to turn my trade opinion around fast enough and work the close/open set-up which would have been short from 1090.5. Result: -4.0

Had to wait for the next set-up(s) and chip away to recover early loss. Scalp mode entered long near reversal time of 1020 and second leg bounce. result: +5.0

Got in short too early prior to lunch session after doji formed. Enter low 85's with 1/2 position and stop in 84's. Result: -2.5

Chipped away off and on in late afternoon session buying off of 83 and 84 bottom and scaling out 86's and 87's. Result: + 5.0

Closed the day with a late day long expecting shorts to release and capture profits. Entered long on 1/2 position in low 87's with 1 pt stop in 86's. Scaled out 88.75 and 99's. Result: +3.5

Still need to work on patience for edge set-ups. They are there most every trading day and occur after 1-2 re-tests of bottom/top. Also, watching the VPOC relationship with these edges which after two days is providig some clues. Combining EWS combo and FT71 VPOC areas helped me have a successful recovery mode today.

Another thing I need to re-visit is not being too anxious to trade within the first 10-15 minutes. I want to play for the gap trades but my timing is off.

Trade Well !

Monday Log - Let The Trade Work

2009-10-19T15:08:00.004-04:00

Waited for market to settle a bit after open looking for short side. Took a good fill in 87's near opening high area. 1st target was 85's and second target was 83's. Target one hit and moved stop to breakeven. Ended up closing trade prior to T2 ultimately being hit. Did not let trade work to full potential. Result: +3.50

Failed to pull trigger on reversal around 1015 time frame and 84-85 area. Thinking combo's but did not execute plan knowing 82-83 area was good support zone. Felt the market fairly well but did not let 1st trade work and did not "listen" to intuition on reversal idea. I continue to be aware of my problem letting these trades work and revising rules to reflect the issue.

Trade Well!

War - Low Rider

2009-10-16T17:33:00.004-04:00

Trading is a war. We win the battle by staying low, ride the wave of patience and strike when the odds of success are bouncing with us.

Friday Log - Better Fills With Patience

2009-10-16T11:45:00.005-04:00

Opened the session going long from 82's looking for 1/2 gap fill. Consumer Sentiment report out at 1000 so needed to be nimble. First target was 84's but tightened stop prior to price moving 2 points short of 1/2 gap. Result: +1.0

Was frustrated with myself for tightening stop as I was pressing just to get a winner in the bag. Had idea to go short from 85-86's but could not pull the trigger, eco report announced and priced dropped without my idea onboard and would not chase it. So missed the prime move into anticipated T1 area of 81-80's.

Waited for one last set-up near lunch time and looked for combo set-up and 50% retrace short. Did not want to get into the late short arena so waited for 82.25 short fill that hit about 1120. Scaled out at 81, 80's and runner for 76's to complete a 10 and 20 combo. Stopped at break even as I left for the day with trade limits on auto pilot. Result: +3.0

One thing I thought of re-focusing on is working on my patience and getting better fills along with better identified risk management. Stops have been too thin, entries have been sporadic at times due to impatience to trade "something". Gotta remind myself that it's quality and not quantity of trades. If I get good entries, I'm more apt to let a trade work, identify the risk more sensibly and relax more.

Trade Well !

Thursday Log - Missed the Move

2009-10-16T10:33:00.002-04:00

Felt I had a good afternoon fill in 1086 and planned out the trade to scale out. First target was the previous high in 88's, then 89's (2 points above previous day close) and have a runner for test of high in 90-91 area. Got the 88, scaled out, adjusted stop to not break even which I should have done but set stop at 1086.5...which was stopped out by a tick before price ran up to anticipated targets. Result: +3.0

Missing trades, not letting them work, pressing too much for a "winner" only to not give myself a chance. Not sure what has happened to my pysche. One week things clicking, next week the inconsistency shows its head. Will continue to sort thru and re-evaluate.

I am printing charts and reviewing the combo moves in relation to chart patterns and flow. This process is frustrating but yet rewarding. What a business. Not expecting to trade past first hour or two on Friday due to possible expiry volatility in afternoon session.

Trade Well !

Wednesday Log - Eluding Rhythm

2009-10-14T17:00:00.004-04:00

This week I'm really feeling off. The deeper into the week I get, the less patient I have been with my trades. Not letting them work and/or getting in a point or two too early. Today I took a short, then long and long. All stopped out. Good stops as far as capital preservation goes, but the entry areas were suspect.

Was long in late morning/early afternoon at 1083. Stopped out at 1081.75. Low for the period...1081.5. Saw H & S forming on 5 min, measured move was 88-89 which coincided with combo thinking. Missed the move. 3 trade Result: -6.0

I have some frustration building. Rethinking my approach. patience and timing. Need to make some adjustments as I find myself being right with many of my trade ideas but either not having enough patience and waiting for the proper entry or not getting in after "good" signal bars print and taking a shot. We'll try again tomorrow with many eco reports looming as well as expiry Friday two days away. I will find the rhythm again but this week the rhythm eludes.

Trade Well !

Tuesday Log - No Handle

2009-10-13T16:01:00.002-04:00

Missed a short fill for the first trade of the day by about a point in 72 area and never really got into a position to enter remainder of day. Thought about entering long in bottom area of 63-64's but missed the opportunity and did not chase. Had a short set up for 67's as it was 50% ret zone from bottom but did not like the price action and internals so took off the trade as price chopped the rest of the session in a tight six point range.

So I could not find the handle today. Did not chase, observed for most of the AM and late PM session. Options expiry this week and earnings continue to throw confusion at us. Until the picture becomes a little more clear to me, I'm keeping the powder dry.

Monday Log - "Holiday" Trading

2009-10-12T15:28:00.002-04:00

Planned to only trade the first 2-3 hours max. I let the market work for the first 15 minutes after open before going short in upper 74's with one point stop at demon's feet. Looking for 1/2 gap and scale out out below that. Was stopped out with high reaching 2 ticks beyond my stop before rotating between 74-75 for the next couple hours. Result: -3.0

I called it a day as I performed some tasks around the house and checked back in around 1500. My inclination of 1/2 gap filling was and ultimately the full gap was hit...but without me along for the ride. In reviewing my one trade, it was a decent fill although I was thinking 75-76's for initial fill but did not wait. This caused me my "Holiday" trade. I figured if I could get in during the first hour, I could have the patience to ride it down to at least 1/2 gap.

Columbus Day "holiday" is not a big one but it certainly limited market action. I planned properly by getting filled in "decent" area but should have waited for a point higher. I anticipated a fairly tight range and rotation before moving one way or the other. Everything happened as expected but without me on the ride. Win some, lose some. We'll get 'em tomorrow.

Trade Well !

Friday Log - Didn't Work So Let the Weekend Begin

2009-10-09T12:17:00.002-04:00

Tried a short, tried a long, looked to the open/close but nothing worked. The range was tight and I got caught in what ended up being a 4-6 point chop zone. I was anticipating the market would first test 57 - 67 edges within the first hour but didn't happen. Here I started to press a little bit so as not to "miss it". Stops were good but as it turns out, entries were about 1-2 points earlier than what would have been optimal. 3 trade Result: -6.0

So begins the weekend. My daily limit was hit within the first couple hours and no reason to press. I'll post a chart later if warranted.

Trade Well !

Thursday Log - Half gap & Half Sap

2009-10-08T12:07:00.004-04:00

Traded after the open expecting the half gap to be filled but couldn't seem to get a feel for the market again early. Price opened in 61's and eventually dipped to 58's without the 1/2 getting filled. Took a shot that half gap would not fill and went long from 59's only to be stopped out in half gap area. Price went approximately a point thru the half gap before climbing up albeit slowly. Turned out to be a sappy trade. Result: -6.0

Went long again once the bottom printed with doji and confirmation around 1015 in 60's. Another two point stop expecting the open to be tested and if price was able to pierce it, then looking for overnight high test and R2. Scaled out in 63's and 64's and 65's. Market looked strong with internals indicating higher but lunch session was coming and market slowed. Result: +12.25

As price rotated and gradually move higher, was thinking combo from low of 56 and watched as IWM led the way with new highs before the rest of market. Russel can many times be a good barometer. A strong A/D (2000+) is also provides a great clue.

More play-off MLB this afternoon so not expecting to trade much if any in PM session. Will post if this changes.

Trade Well!

Wednesday Log - Daily Limit + MLB

2009-10-08T08:47:00.003-04:00

Waited for the market to open before entering a trade but in the end I should have waited longer. I could not get a feel for the market. I had what I thought was a good plan but did not turn my ideas around quickly enough when the range did not materialize . Initial trades were short then long but I found myself getting faked out. Two trade Result: -6.0

Tried a couple more trades in mid morning session one in each direction but found myself pressing which is never good as the market rotated, head faked and got the best of me. Result: -4.5.

The rhythm of the market could not be captured by me today. I realized anxiousness creeping in and combined with some late morning interruptions as well as my plan to watch afternoon MLB play-off baseball, I decided to shut down early and re-group for Thursday. I feel I do have a better handle on my discipline to stop trading when "I'm not in the game". I the past I would continue to trade "to get even". No more. Daily limit of loss hit and we wait to trade another day.

Trade Well !

Tuesday Log - Trading Guru's and Wizards

2009-10-06T15:35:00.005-04:00

The trade left over from Monday was stopped out so I ended with a scratch between two trades.
Today started out with a couple attempts pre-market long but failed to make anything out of it. Waited for the market to open after getting stopped out on two trades. Needed to respect the demon until broken. Result: -5.0

Was not feeling the market in the early part of the session. Tried selling near a master pivot area with stop set just above it as well as R1 offering additional resistance in the area. This too was stopped out. Result: -6.0

Once price went thru R2, I was looking long for the immediate session as internals and price action further confirmed. Waited on pullback 49's and scaled out in 52's with break even on remainder. Result: +6.0

Other than the AM trades, no other trades executed until PM session. A little aggravating waiting for the set-ups but it paid off. I began seeing the market better after stalking it all afternoon. Put on four trades between 1410 and 1550. Shorted from 46's which was a bit later and higher risk than I wanted but had 43 area as target. Took 2/3 of position off in 43's and had trailing stop on last C in 44's. Result: +8.5

Went long from 43's around 1430 once the opening price area held which was also R1 support. Those pivot areas are nice targets for overshoots as the MM's flush out known "natural" stops usually by 1-2 points. Went with a heavy position and scaled out in 45's, 47's and 49's. Closed this sequence by 1510. Result: +10.75

Thought I was finished as it was 1545. I wanted to short from the stall out in 52 area but could not pull the trigger. Price pulled back to the 48's and I liked the low risk area and used combo thinking to help measure the move. Quick hits in late afternoon for 1-2 points usuaaly works the best due to volatility. Result: +3.0

Managed stops well during the day as well as organized good targets and trade plan(s). Working pivots and combos during the day helped me get back my early loses and turn this into a profitable day. Kind of a sloppy start but perseverance and not letting fear inhibit my decisions due to a couple early losers was the difference today.

Also, monitored S&PGuru during this once a month free trial day (first Tuesday each month). He doesn't "say" much but when he does, it is very interesting to watch his calls. Unlike 'E' and EWS chat where he teaches us how to trade and not so much what to trade, the S&PGuru does not fully explain his trades. But with my understanding of EWS, I could understand many of the levels/targets he was shooting for and some of his logic used...although his call outs of what time price should or will move was uncanny.

So between monitoring the Guru today and using the Emini Wizard System, it turned out to be an interesting and profitable day. Trading Guru's and Wizards. Ya gotta love it.

Side note...inverted head and shoulders on 5 min. Measured move targets 62-65 area.

Trade Well !

Monday Log - Earnings Season

2009-10-05T18:28:00.002-04:00

Trader Tip - This week earnings season will ramp up for 3rd quarter reporting and future outlook. Be aware of major company earnings announcements particularly if holding positions pre and post market.

Not much to report today. No trades in AM, one long trade in afternoon before having to get to an appointment prior to market close. Put on a short position prior to leaving for the afternoon and it remains active. Worse I can do is scratch as it's a high 37 fill. Missed fill on partial position in 34's by two ticks. Still holding for a retest lower.

I had a hard time getting a rhythm for the market today. For that reason, I was ultra conservative and SOH most of day. We'll see how the market responds tomorrow.

Trade Well !

The Weekend Shmooze

2009-10-03T08:56:00.002-04:00

Just wanted to add a few thoughts that popped into my head that I feel might find some use within this forum. A few quick hits of information FWIW...

We don't know what we don't know
38 Steps to Becoming a Successful Trader...what stage are you at?
For those who trade the ES and are not familiar with or follow "FuturesTrader71" on Twitter, I suggest you look into monitoring his tweets. FT71 recently started a blog which I've added to "My Blogosphere" list below.
Towards the end of my blog you will find a list of trader resources. I should probably try to organize the information in an easier format. But for now, peck around and click on a subject title that might be of interest.
Wait 'till next year Cub's Fans. As I've always said "you gotta love baseball before ya love the Cubs"
Consider joining the Eminiwizard Community. Look around 'E's public site to get a feel for what his system has to offer. His system, daily tutelage and consistent presence in the live chat is second to none and has taken my trading to the next level. Check it out and if you have questions, drop 'E' an email or post here.
The more we get into trading the more we realize how parallel trading is to life. "Does life mimic trading or does trading mimic life"?
"Trading is a journey, not a destination"
Why do I end each post with Trade Well? We want to always be in control and have a plan for each of our trades. All trades will not be winners. We will have losers and this reality is part of the biz. But even the losers can be a "good" trade. When we "Trade Well", we plan the trade and trade the plan, analyze the results and move on and wait for the next high probability set-up.

Peace and out, enjoy the weekend and remember...Trade Well !

Classics

2009-10-03T07:53:00.004-04:00

Classics to get the blood flowing.

Friday Log - Scalps After Trend Day With Combo's

2009-10-02T10:18:00.008-04:00

Began the day with pre-market longs after the employment eco report was announced and market settled down. Went long from 12's and 14's and looking to scalp 1-2 points on each sequence. Took all off at one level on each of the two trades: Result: +3.25

After the open, I was waiting to get a feel for the price action. Wanted to go long from 15-16's in anticipation of 1/2 gap but didn't get in as I waited with good patience. In hindsight I could have entered with stop just below the 15 open.

Forgot about the factory inventories report @ 1000 and was long just prior to the announcement in 18's, got lucky with stop not getting set as price action was quick. Scaled out in 20's and 21's. Result: +3.25

Tried short from 23's in anticipation of yesterday low not being taken out. Stop was 1 point and got stopped out. Result: -1.25

Failed to re-enter under next "natural" entry area of below yesterday close. But waited for pullback using combo theory, went long in 20's and scaled out in 21's and 22's. Result: +2.25

Used combo thinking on each trade. Looking at middles and key levels. Continues to amaze me how the combo's play out over and over again. EWS proves profitable again. So, since I had a good morning and it's a Friday after a strong trend day, I expect range and chop during remainder of session. For those reason's, I am starting the weekend early. Learning not to over trade and especially once profits are bagged. Have a good weekend.

Trade Well !

Thursday Log - Trend with Interruptions

2009-10-02T08:23:00.004-04:00

I was not able to get a feel for the market once the bell rang and was on the wrong side looking for 1/2 gap try from 45's. Stop was below overnight low by 2 points which was knocked out quick. 1000 eco reports loomed and needed to be out by then regardless of trade position. Result: -6.50

That was the end of my day as household interruptions and pressing errands were attended to.

One observation regarding this trending day, there were pullback areas during the day which provided opportunity to go counter trend for a couple points once the price action "rested" as well as areas to re-enter short. The trend had nice interruptions in it in order to gain some trades. Internals supported the down move with steep angles.

Should be able to be in position to trade most of the day Friday although expecting range bound day which is usually the case the day after a trending session. Employment report comes out in pre-market which could influence the day.

Trade Well !

Wednesday Log - Wild Day

2009-09-30T08:54:00.010-04:00

Began the day trying to trade the pre-market economic report announcements. Price did not get to my long or short "hot-box" trade levels which are usually very conservative. Missed the 0830 stab up by 2.0 points and came no where near my short side order. Jumped in for a quick scalp but that was all for pre-market. Result. +1.0

At the open I played the half gap from 59's. Out with 2/3's of position in 56's with remaining C in trade for gap or break even. The b/e won before market plunged without my trailer. Result: +5.50

Rest of day I was in and out of office. Tough day to trade with EOQ and EOM balancing of big boy accounts. They did not disappoint for orchestrating a wild day in the market. I am shutting down early and will wait for another try tomorrow. I'll post chart later.

Trade Well !

Tuesday Log - EOQ Means Earning Season Begins

2009-09-30T08:43:00.003-04:00

Started the day trading near the open with a long from 61's. Just looking for some quick scalps. Scaled out at 62's and 63's with a runner remaining which broke even. Result: +4.25

Re-entered long from 56's near the 1000 hour. Again, looking for scalps as market was in a tight overnight range that never really broke. Result: +3.0

The rest of the day was stuck in a horrid range. Tried a couple scalps but unlike the AM session, I did not feel the market well, got a bit impatient as I wanted to trade and forced a couple. The decision to trade in such tight ranges today was not a good one and intuition told me to back off but I failed to "listen" to myself. 2 trades Result: -4.0

End of month and quarter on Wednesday. Earnings season begins in October which can be a volatile month. Be aware of major company earnings announcement schedules as well as protect against possible wild swings during the month.

Trade Well !

Monday Log - EOM & Eco reports Loom

2009-09-28T17:57:00.004-04:00

During the weekend, I was able to catch up on some chart reading and EWS website review. I was in a position to watch the Globex open at 1800 and peeked back in around 2300 late that evening. Saw support in the 35-36 area so took a paper trade for overnight. Put on 4 C's (which I am beginning to gradually incorporate into my live trading) with pre-set exits.

After entering in 37's, I scaled out 50% in 40's, 25% out next morning around 0730 in 44's, added 1 C in 44's and took last C from original entry off in 46's. Ended up b/e on added position. Result: +22.0

Not as good results after the regular session began. Was expecting 1/2 gap to fill but missed by a couple ticks. Stop was a bit too high (at MP level) and modified my stop rule so my stops are set no more than angel/demon feet / head respectively and maximum 2 pts. Shorts were squeezed and so was I. result: -7.0

Tried another short in 51's but that too was squeezed. Result: -3.0

From there it was a matter of nibbling back my losses in a market that had lighter volume due to Yom Kippur. Price was range bound for most of the lunch and PM sessions so only scalps were appropriate. Came up short recovering loses but felt comfortable "getting back on the horse" and getting what I could and what the market wanted to give me. 5 trades - Result: +9.25

Today I continued to feel confident even though I had to dig out from a deep hole I had dug for myself. I am revisiting my rules and honing them in order to create a little more discipline with my losses and trade management. I felt the market fairly well today and was "playing" with Mr. Market by scalping for 1-2 points and one final mini-swing trade at EOD.

With end of month quickly approaching as well as major eco reports to be announced this week, I am expecting price games and volatility. I'm ready to go at it again tomorrow.

Trade Well !

"Trading's Been Good So Far"

2009-09-26T09:48:00.001-04:00

Friday Log - No Panic Button

2009-09-26T09:15:00.005-04:00

Made a couple points on the open/close set-up early in the regular session. Put into account previous days resistance in the 47-49 area so I wasn't expecting much to upside. Lack of quick action let most of the opportunity dwindle. Hit first long target with remainder break even Result: +2.0

Went long again using 43-44 area as support as well as combo thinking from overnight high. Got on the wrong side and then failed to use my stop "thinking" 41 was the extreme bottom. Wrong again. I averaged in as price continued down which wasn't a smart move. Had a stop set in 35's but from previous observations and experience, anticipated price to retrace to around 50% of the move...which it eventually did. Thought price would bust through 44's and test the 46-49 area and maybe get to 51's. Price never made it and I stayed in a bit too long. Result: -5.50

A couple things I learned today was even though the position went against me and I did not play the trade sequence in a smart, well planned manner, I did not panic like I used to do in the past. I saw I was on the wrong side of the combo, saw the H&S forming on the 5 min but stayed fairly cool and collected. I'm finding myself becoming more familiar with the rhythm and flow of price action and anticipating what it might "logically" do even though course was not reversed today as I should have.

I was aware of EWS combo, the perils of averaging in on a losing position and still need to develop better habits to avoid those negative situations. Still, what I got out of it was no panic. Emotional stability seems to have been achieved even in adverse trading situations. Now I need to see if I can continue the emotional calm while also improving my trading habits...no doubt I will. Life is good.

Trade Well !

Thursday Log - Voo Doo Economics

2009-09-24T17:27:00.002-04:00

I began my trading day planning 63 area to hold as resistance. Waist, PP and weekly mid lined up nicely along with a couple other clues as outlined within EWS. Anticipating the jobless eco report at 0803, I locked and loaded to go short at 62.75 which was below PP and beyond the overnight high(anticipated the "normal" 1-2 point overshoot). My stop was at 64 and only put on one C to test the water.

The trade triggered and was stopped out. Price went to 64's where it seemed to lose momo so I re-entered short @ 63.75 with 2 C's. Scaled out at 61's and 59's. Two trade Result: +4.75

Bought near support level of 54's but stopped out on tight stop. Re-entered long in 47's for scalps at this point. Went to the well again long in 47's around 1038 but got in too early and took 5 point hit but my stop was controlled and planned. Took the short side to gain back some loses which worked out well. 4 trade Result: -1.25

Went short in 44's over lunch session for a scalp with anticipation of stab thru 43 low which did fill. Runner ended break even. Next went long in 43's during PM session once price hit another support area and doji formed. Scaled out in 46's and 47's. 2 trade Result: +9.25

Was looking for long pop from 45's and 46's last 45 minutes of session. Only worked with one C, kept trying to get a couple here and there, worked tight stops and took 5 trades during final 30 minutes. If I was quick and more nimble, I could have easily carved out 1.1.5 scalps but was thinking a run to 49-51. Result: -2.25

Overall a good day but my trade economy was not as sharp today as last couple sessions. A few more trades than I needed to be involved with during final 30-45 minutes which was rather voo doo-ish but risk was small and only played 1 C to insure bulk of profits were preserved.

It was another day of seeing the market pretty well, having a basic plan, realizing a comfort level with my confidence and trade execution. I've been very satisfied with my emotional stability the past few days/weeks and putting EWS techniques into play daily. Combo thinking is getting sharper but still need to work on expanding the concept into larger frames and letting those trade ideas "work". The best way to do that is by creating leverage with more contracts. This will be a work in progress. With some luck, skill and some "voo doo economics", the market is becoming much less scary and much more predictable.

Trade Well !

Wednesday Log - The Fed Frenzy

2009-09-23T16:51:00.003-04:00

Returned from the long weekend today only to be greeted by good old Fed Day. Went into the trading day looking to get involved with the morning move thinking there wouldn't be much more until the emotion of the FOMC announcement at 1415.

The first hour was pitiful as the market was basically in a 4 point range. I adjusted my "1st hour" range to reflect the low as of 1040 which proved to be more accurate a range to work from. Looked for the close/open trade to scalp a couple early points with about a 2 point stop in 69's. Once price went thru yesterday's close, I waited for a slight pullback and entered in the 67's. 1st target was 65's where I took 2/3 of position off with runner remaining for stab at overnight low area in 63's. Price stalled, I didn't like the "feel" of holding the short so went flat in lower 65's. Result: +5.0

Waited for Fed announcement before getting into another trade. Went short @ 1421 in 73's after emotional spike up. I was only looking for a quick scalp with lighter position than first trade of the day. Scaled out, re-set stop to breakeven which triggered before price stabbed into 75's. Result: +2.0

$TICK reading hit +1300 at about 1430 and again about five minutes late on divergent volume as price made new high in 75's. Went short again in high 74's with smaller position than 1st trade of the day, trying to preserve profits already bagged. First target was 72's and last target was a runner for 68's. Result: +7.0

Another day of planning, patience and getting a good feel for the market produced good profits. Using my experience from watching previous price action during Fed Day helped me work the "Fed Trade" without the emotional frenzy.

No losers again today and good trade execution, management and sequence economy. I've been seeing the trades better, my confidence in letting the trades work is sharper and my trade management has seen improvement as I go for the initial target and scale out with a plan in mind. We'll see how the rest of the week goes but feeling strong these past several days...Fed Frenzy or whatever the fuel source, I'm prepared with confidence, not cockiness.

Trade Well !

Monday Log - Under the Influence

2009-09-21T23:33:00.004-04:00

Went on an extended weekend jaunt to ACY (Atlantic City for those not familiar with airport codes). My bride wanted to visit with a couple relatives who were planning a trip there so we decided to make the 5 hour drive. So, I'm reporting from Harrah's Casino Resort.

Started my trading day at 0830 by setting up my trading plan and looking to trade the primary move only. I reviewed the overnight action, last weeks range and in particular the Friday range and close. I was tempted to go long from the open around the 54's looking for the half gap move but held off. Instead, I had my short loaded in the 67's which hit at about 0945. Scaled out in 65's, 63's and was looking for last C off at 51's but missed the buy to close by one tick. Once price began to gain some support, I closed the trade in 53's. Result: +9.75

One trade sequence, conservative entry and exits. Well planned, virtually no emotion and I let the trade work. Initial stop was 1.5 points then moved to B/E on balance once 1st profit objective was achieved. One thing I need to consider in the future in regards to my trade management is to take part of my position off by about .5-1.o before a key S/R level. Just missed my final target by one tick, which was one tick above the overnight low. To many traders were running for cover about 1.0 before that support level so might be prudent to exit prior to that price area and leave a runner on (or add) in order to capture additional profit potential.

In the end, I felt good about the trade, my patience and planning for the trade. Maybe being under the casino environment influenced my perspective? Not sure but it sure felt good to trade for no more than an hour and then hit the other game in town.

Probably no trading or post on Tuesday as we'll be driving back to VA.

Trade Well !

Profits - You Want Some Too!

2009-09-18T15:52:00.003-04:00

Friday Log - Let the Trades Work

2009-09-18T15:08:00.003-04:00

I missed the open and the down side slide so had to wait for the next opportunity. The only thing that was a bit irritating was the fact that I entered a long trade around 1030 in the 60's and 63's hoping to be done trading by lunch time. It was like the trade that would never end until EOD.

Was waiting for price to test the open and/or overnight highs at some point before 1500 and I planned to be out of the trade by the final hour of trading. I gradually peeled off my C's after taking some heat around 1200 as price dipped into 59's with stop in 58's.

The sequence of this trade took over four hours which was a bit frustrating but at least there was profit involved. Scaling out as price ran up from the lows and finally closed the final C of the trade in 64's. What a price game/battle zone in that area. I wasn't going to get trapped in the final hour so started the weekend at least in the last hour of the regular session. Result: +7.25

Again today I had a good feel for the market as I continue to use intuition and trade "what I see" not "what I think" to help drive my trade decisions. Also, I continue to see development in my ability to "let the trades work". This is a result of having a better handle on patience, intuition and being familiar with reading/interpreting my internal indicators that provide great clues.

Trade Well !

Thursday Log - Quadruple Witching Expiry

2009-09-17T16:15:00.004-04:00

Today I again saw and felt the rhythm of the market pretty well. Used quick reverses when my bias was wrong a couple of times and managed good stops. Entered the day thinking down towards PP and even had a trade for that area that I took off too early.

Went into the day thinking mostly scalp trades so I put on several RT trades through the day. A bit too quick on exits but overall entry areas were generally sharp and low risk. I'm getting more and more comfortable with tighter stops and getting back into the same trade idea while limiting risk. Although the commish costs stack up, it's part of the business and learning process.

After several round trip trades (7) during the three sessions...Result: +5.25

Quadruple Witching expiration day is tomorrow, Friday. This scenario happens four times per year on the third Friday of each March, June, September and December. The "quadruple" expiration involves Index Futures, Index Options, Stock Option and Single Stock Futures. Could be a volatile day in the market, particularly during the late afternoon. This trader plans to get his trades in during the AM session and take the PM off. We'll see how it pans out.

Trade Well !

Wednesday Log – Steady as She Goes

2009-09-16T16:02:00.002-04:00

Trader Tip – Trading is simple but what is difficult is getting to the point where simplicity is achieved, then recognized and finally practiced. We all start out in a similar manner, trading with multiple indicators, hunting for the “Holy Grail”, moving from indicator to indicator, system to system and strategy to strategy. Like a bee pollinating a field of flowers, we search for that “secret” that will bring home the honey pot. Like the bee, we need to concentrate on one “field” (strategy) and become proficient with one plan in order to become efficient. Finding simplicity is the goal, getting there requires an expedition.

Started the day trying to work the pre-market eco reports @ 0830. Went short at an edge thinking we might dip towards the overnight low or the PP. I was wrong and got out once a doji was formed. Not a real bright entry but, had an idea and a plan that did not work out…move on. Result: -4.0

Waited for the regular open and played the half gap which has been a good, high prob trade. Entry was short in 52’s and scaled out down to 48’s. Added an extra C due to the higher probability trade and what I perceived as a good entry price. Well planned trade, specific targets and good patience. Result: +10.25

Waited for a pullback to re-enter short for a scalp, although market seemed as though it wanted to climb higher. Went “back to the well” short in 52’s for a 1 point scalp in 51’s with a runner left of which ended B/E. result: +1.0

Went long in 53’s once market pierced intraday and overnight highs. Had specific targets based on EWS and pivots with a one point stop below the breakout. Played it somewhat conservative with 2 C’s. Could have added a third as a runner once the final target was hit but didn’t. Looked like trending day once 1058 area was taken out. Result: +5.0

Put on a couple short scalps from 63’s in the PM session. One was profitable, 2 were B/E only using one C. Playing the combo strategy and played out nicely. Only looking for a couple. Result: +2.0

Not trying to force my trades, taking what the market gives me, getting in touch with intuition and the market rhythm while better planning my trades is beginning to create more confidence and steady profits. Over trading used to be a problem but I seem to have that aspect under control. So it’s “steady as she goes” the last few days as I implement a better mapped out course of action as well as emotional neutrality.

Trade Well !

Tuesday Log - Pivots of Intuitive Opportunity

2009-09-15T16:08:00.003-04:00

Started the day with a short about 10 minutes into the session with a fill in 46's. Set stop above 47.25 which was previous high. Stopped out to the tick before price fell to anticipated targets. A little frustrating but moved on and waited for next opportunity. Result: -2.0

Waited for the first hour range to set in while trying a couple short and long scalps in the 38-40 support area while looking at various timeframes and determine which chart was in play. Turned from scalps to more of a swing bias once price bounce off of PP. Result: +1.5

Bias was now long as I plotted my zones of entry and exit using pivots and combo theory. Got in long in 42's and out with all in 44's while waiting for test of previous regular session high. Result: +2.0

Went long again in 44's and 46's once price tested previous high area which was accompanied by STO and ADX divergence. Scaled out in 47's and 49's as my thinking was that overnight high would be tested and taken out by 1-2 points. Internals had a bias upward and provided the confidence to stick with the trade. Result: +7.0

Took a short off the high in 51's and moved the stop down as I looked for minimum of a couple points which was achieved. Had idea of 45's to be revisited but only put on 1 C for this short otherwise I would have scaled and capture a few more. Result: +2.0

This week I began focusing more on using the MM fractals and pivots to help define my trade ideas and trade management. In addition I find my intuition and "feel" for the market becoming more honed. Although my stops are at times maybe too narrow, the losses are much more under control, anxiety is low and confidence is strong.

Using the pivots, EWS combo system, intuition and getting a feel for market rhythm are becoming much more clear and recognizable for trade opportunities. Trading the edges is the key. I've realized ongoing improvement with my patience to wait for the set-ups while also controlling losses with better entries and stops. Also being able to turn my bias around continues to improve.

Trade Well !

Monday Log - Shoulder Day

2009-09-14T16:00:00.002-04:00

Boring trading day today as I participated in the morning primary move and the afternoon small pop. Tried a few scalps mid-day but for the most part I'll call those a scratch with commish covered. Looking for only 1-2 points, I went long on both the morning move and afternoon move scaling out in the AM and taking it all off in PM as momentum was waned. Difficult day to watch and participate in as the moves were on the shoulders of the intraday chart. Result: +4.50

Looking forward to see how the market reacts in the 1050-1060 area as this was the drop off the shelf last October. There are some resistance areas as well as psyche levels to be aware of. Overnight session should provide so clues as well as the support levels and range today.

Trade Well !

To Be Well Armed is to Be Well Informed - Understand the Issues & Get Involved In What You Believe is Right. Voice an Informed Opinion!

2009-09-13T12:07:00.002-04:00

Friday Log - Out For Tea

2009-09-13T11:12:00.004-04:00

Pulled off a couple decent trades on Friday with the best one being the participation of the plunge out of the 40's and 38's. Shortened day. Result: +6.5

Had to leave early Friday (thus the late post) in order to get to Washington, DC ahead of possible traffic and to participate in the "tea party" protest on Saturday 9/12 against big government. Glad I went and was there to be counted.

The experience was incredible and hopefully the protests against a government that is out of control will continue to gain momentum, support and participation among all citizens who are beginning to take notice of sensing that "something just ain't right".

As trader's, we need to pay attention to the current discussion by congress to further tax investors/traders. If passed, H.R. 1068 could have a devastating effect on those of us making a living from day trading. The government will be looking for "creative" ways to increase taxes and we need to get informed be be active in voicing our opinion. Review the link provided as well as the petition link regarding the proposed "Trader's Tax".

Trade Well !

Thursday Log - Modus Operandi = Confusion

2009-09-10T16:04:00.004-04:00

Entered the day looking for reasonable low risk entries but with more caution than usual. With this being rollover day it was a transitional period between contracts and the M.O. of market behavior on these days did not disappoint. Waited for first 15 minutes after open before first trade made. Got on the long side (wrong side) from 25's and had two point stop as I had expected price to reach 29's before testing lows. Result: -4.0.

Got back in long at 24's on doji candle signal and scaled out at 27's and 28's. Once price busted through 30's waited for re-test of breakout area in low 29's. Scaled out at 31's and 32's. Used the breakout area, combo thinking and PP area as support for second long trade idea. Two trade sequence results: +6.0 / +5.0

Tried a long trade in afternoon session from 34's but tightened stop to break even after price moved a point through 35. Took me out of the trade before hitting 37 target area. Had the right idea and as it turns out a fairly good, low risk entry but didn't let it work properly.

Through EWS, I/we learned a lot these past couple days regarding market behavior on rollover day. The modus operandi worked out as explained/anticipated by 'E' and 'Z' during the past two trading sessions. After more questions and dialogue between members, I feel I/we will be much more prepared and organized for the next rollover period as the market makers play out their M.O. by creating confusion and slight-of-hand.

Trade Well !

ES Rollover

2009-09-10T13:18:00.002-04:00

The E-mini contract is divided into four quarters; Mar (H), Jun (M), Sept (U), Dec (Z)]. On the 2nd Thursday of these month's the contract "rolls over" from old to new. This is a transitional period that can provide big swings and high volatility as the market makers adjust positions and play the gap between contracts.

Transition into the new contract by adjusting charts, be aware of previous days "old" contract HH/LL as well as the "new" Globex open from Wednesday 1630 and the overnight HH/LL. There are many transitional considerations to be aware of during the day before and, day of, rollover day. Be prepared and plan for it and we can trade like any other day.

Using EWS has helped take the mystery out of these transitional periods as well as being able to plan better for the trading day ahead.

Trade Well !

Wednesday Log - Get Some Z's

2009-09-09T15:58:00.004-04:00

Participated in the AM move by going long from 23's. Saw support in 22's so hopped onboard the move with 2 pt stop. Scaled out on the way up to 29's. Felt good about the trade although stopped out on runner by one tick. Was targeting runner for FF T1 but did not get back in.
Result: +9.0

Tried a low risk divergence short later during lunch session but stopped out above AM high. Sto and volume were divergent so good clue to downward move coming. Maybe (probably) got in too early with too tight of stop (stop set one tick above recent high). Ultimately a 2.25 stop would have worked from my entry but that would have been too much risk for the trade idea. I wasn't going to risk more as I find my legs not to over trade which I must say I've been much more in control with. Result: -0.75

Thursday is "rollover day" where we transition from the ESU9 to the ESZ9 contract. Expect volatility and big swings as the market makers move and groove. So don't forget to transition to the new contract on Thursday. Set your charts and orders by getting some 'Z's!

Trade Well !

Tuesday Log - Scalpers Delight

2009-09-08T15:53:00.002-04:00

Today I participated in a few quick scalps that worked out well. Kept my targets to 1-2 points max all day with runners at B/E. Divergent indicators, price dipping up and down over VWAP...just no real indication of any breakout although I was surprised last hour did not at least pop and test overnight high. All day result: +7.50.

Short post today as not much coming into focus to comment on. I'm sure Mr. Market will provide some interesting opportunities to trade and write about as we get deeper into this shortened trading week and traders get their mojo back after a long summer.

Trade Well !

September & October Directional Market Bias?

2009-09-04T13:43:00.002-04:00

September and October can be pretty wild. Have a plan, fasten seat belts and enjoy the ride!

Friday Log - Trade Labor

2009-09-04T13:29:00.003-04:00

Missed the move off the 0830 employment report by 1 point. Had my "Hot Box" trade in place with a long in area of PP/99. So waited for market to open regular hours. Put on three live trades. Two long, one short between the 01-07 areas. Identified the framework as outlined by EWS and played it nicely as I "felt" the market and had good trade ideas going into each sequence. I did not try to do too much, identified targets and scaled out of 2 of the 3 trades using profits from first 2 trades to get a little more from the third. Result: +9.75.

Thinking more and more about this combo concept and seeing how it works time and time again. Slowly building confidence in what I see and getting a bit more in touch with the intuitive side.

Next week will be a short week due to long Labor Day weekend and possible extended time off for this trader in order to see some Cubs baseball in PIT. Waiting for some friends to confirm. In the meantime, have a great weekend everyone! Next week could be a wild one as the "trade laborers" come back from vacation.

Trade Well !

Thursday Log - Watching Paint Dry

2009-09-03T15:16:00.002-04:00

Short entry today. Tight range again today probably due to anticipation of monthly employment report tomorrow morning at @ 0800 as well as last week of summer coming to an end. Planning to see low volume tomorrow and the only significant trade opportunities should be in AM. I'm planning to start the long Labor Day weekend early tomorrow as will most other traders.

One thing good about slow days like yesterday and today is that it's an excellent opportunity for the Emini Wizard to conduct class for his membership. Very educational thoughts and observations shared and he really does teach us how to trade. Not what to trade. He's awesome and so is his system!

Took two trades today but both were scratches as I did not like the way they "felt". Listened to the "intuitive" trader and in the end, it was the correct move. Back tomorrow with a short post.

Trade Well !

Wednesday Log – The Day After Hangover

2009-09-02T16:11:00.003-04:00

Trader Tip - Generally after a large move the previous day, look for the next day to “recover” by digesting the move and trading in a fairly tight, choppy range. This is a scalp only type day we should plan for unless proven otherwise.

Identified the overnight range and played long in live account off the bottom a couple time pre-market. Stopped out on first trade once the emotion hit after 0830 eco reports were announced. Got back in at 92’s once overnight low was taken out by a couple ticks and did not go lower. Held thru the open and scalped and scaled out. Pre-Market Result: +1.5

With another eco report due out at 1000, I was just looking for scalps with tight stops in place. Identified the PG area and worked my trades off of the pivot for 1-2 point profits and one point max stops. Once the emotion started to work its way out and new low was made (thinking stop run), I got back in long in 92’s (back to the ‘92’well again) and scaled out at 94’s 95’s and 97’s. Result: +9.5

Waited for short side trade 999-1001 area. Got in short just before 1100 in 99’s with stop above 1001 (overnight high). Still in scalp mode and scaled out in 97’s and flat once 96’s closed the trade. Result: +4.0

The market put on a nice “bender” yesterday and due to internet connection problems I was having, was unable to belly-up to the “bar”. Made up for some of it today with some good scalp trades and a good feel of market “rhythm” in AM session. Not trying to do too much and taking advantage of Mr. Market’s “morning after hangover”.

Trade Well !

Tuesday Log - Project EON

2009-09-01T13:53:00.003-04:00

Due to my internet provider performing upgrades to the area cable system, my connection was sporadic at best during most of the morning thus no opportunity to follow the market let alone get into the rhythm of it. What a day to miss (or maybe not?). These types of days look easy in hindsight but can be very difficult in real time.

So today went to Project EON (Extenable Optical Network), I guess it's a fancy term given by my internet provider for fiber optics upgrade (FOU?). It was a good day to catch up on my reading.

Trade Well !

Monday Log – EOM

2009-08-31T16:10:00.000-04:00

Not too much to report today as this EOM trading day comes to a close. Tried a few trades both sides with short bias. Both live and sim pretty much scratch with some pocket change collected on each. Good for a cup of coffee and pay for the comish.

Could not find a real good rhythm today as price was trapped in a ridiculously tight range all day including the primary AM move. Narrow EWS combo trades worked well for scalps if you played them.

So the end of August is here and the final week of summer for most has begun. EOM trading day was short and sweet and so is today’s post. Looking for a little more to bite on tomorrow from Mr. Market.

Reminder: Labor Day three holiday next weekend. Markets closed on Monday Sept.7.

Trade Well !

A Tribute to Woodstock & Next Week's Trading Theme for Our P&L

2009-08-29T14:07:00.001-04:00

Tunes to trade by!

The Weekend Shmooze

2009-08-29T12:23:00.008-04:00

As I grow and develop my trading prowess, naturally so does my blog. It is my intention to enhance the benefits of this journal so that I and others can find some meaning, organization and answers to questions that will help map our course during the trading journey. Thus, the creation of "The Weekend Shmooze".

Shmooze (also spelled shoomz) is Yiddish and defined as "to hang out with; to chat; engage in casual talk". So I find the title to this new component of the journal to be apropos in reference to what I want to accomplish...sharing odds & ends of information.

On occasion I'll add some references to this forum via posts which will supplement the many great resources I have listed near the end of this page.

I recently found some great posts within a couple of my favorite blogs that I regularly visit and wanted to share in my forum. The referenced trading blogs are ES specific and the posts I'm sharing were written by "guest" authors.

The first guest blog entry is found in the "Don Miller Trading Journal". This was written by one of his "Jellies" who, if I didn't know better could have been writing by a member within E-Nation (Emini Wizard System). I recognized many common experiences and associations this guest author describes regarding his learning experience.

The second guest post was found in "E-mini Player: Emini S&P 500 Futures Trading Journal". Previous comments I've read by author Ziad, found him to be a very astute trader who shares much wisdom and practical trading advise. In addition, I've seen "E-mini Player" and his blog develop and evolve into a worthy resource for serious ES traders to visit and add to their arsenal of learning.

The aforementioned posts will be a nice introduction to these informative blogs. I would suggest you consider adding these two blogs to your regular reading routine and believe you will definitely find many gold nuggets of useful information within these journals if you decide to visit them regularly.

Trade Well !

Friday Log - End of Month on Monday

2009-08-28T12:54:00.004-04:00

Missed the big move in AM and from there it was difficult for me to find and entry. Played a couple sim trades but ended with a scratch. Nothing worth while to report. Doing some stuff around the house and not really feeling like I can participate at this point unless I press and I'm staying away from that temptation.

Might as well begin the weekend early and get ready for the last day of the month on Monday. Summer is almost over, volume should begin to come back into the market next month with most of the action lighting up the charts in the 4th quarter which begins in one month.

I've posted an EOD chart. There was a little bit of something for everyone today if you were able to find an appealing low risk entry. We saw an early downtrend, a reversal bounce and range bound consolidation. A few clues were available during the day. Enjoy the weekend!

Trade Well !

Thursday Log – Half & Half in AM

2009-08-27T17:07:00.001-04:00

Took a pre-market live scalp after the GDP and jobless reports were announced. Using the 1 minute chart, I took the emotional bounce long in 26’s once 25’s held. Only looking for a couple and only used one contract with target at previous feet of Demon area. Result: +2.0

Once the market opened, I was looking for breach of yesterday close. This is a TC set-up and went short in the live account in 25’s and planned to scale. Scaled out of live with final target near previous angel support. Result: +3.5

Went short in sim using more intuitive trades. Had a higher risk resting sell order in 19’s. Thinking if the recently tested 20’s breaks, market should go to next angel support area. Scaled out down to 15’s. Result: +5.5

Continuing with sim trade, took long bounce from 15’s once doji formed with targets of 17’s and 18’s. Worked out nicely playing the bounce with confirmation. Result:+5.25

Sold from the 50% retrace in sim but was stopped out. I was tempted to put on a live trade short as well but at the last minute took it off as “intuitively” I felt the market was gaining some upward momo…and it turned out to be the correct response. Result: -4.0

Took most of PM session off and was in and out. Heard alert go off, returned to the desk and scalped a live trade for a couple once the -14K extreme $TICK triggered. Took the trade short. I was surprised market did not retreat more than it did. Maybe a sign of EOM strength? We’ll see. Result: +2.0

Kicking myself a little on the first live trade as I went short. All indications were for downward movement. Played half of what I thought might happen in live and second half in sim. Good results that will eventually lead to better trade decisions.

One chart pattern of interest was the bounce off the bottom. Good support bounce off MA’s on other timeframes and doji formation and subsequent HL.

Trade Well !

Emotional Spikes & More Patterns on the Way

2009-08-26T18:10:00.004-04:00

Although I have several hundred intraday charts printed, I am going to begin posting pattern related charts within this logbook. Each chart will be labeled and organized by pattern category for easy referencing and comparison.

An important part of becoming a good trader is pattern recognition and being able to act on it by trading what we see. In the coming days, I will occasionally provide this blog with not only more "Traders Tips" but also deliver some personal resources.

Resources will include charts, websites, PDF's and other "neat stuff" that I've discovered or been introduced to over the past three years. Maybe someone will find something useful among the resources I will share.

Trade Well !

Wednesday Log – AM Hour of Power Then Scalps

2009-08-26T18:04:00.003-04:00

Through a combination of live and sim trading, I continue to try and get in touch with my intuitive side as a trader. I’m beginning to see some differences but nothing to get too excited about, yet, that would relate to a more consistent P/L. The “tale of two traders” is a rather interesting game to play with what will hopefully provide some key insights and opportunity to improve P/L.

I began the day with a live as well as a sim long in the 23’s approx..15 min after the open. With the New Home Sales eco report looming at 1000, I was keeping a short leash on my live stop and gave a little more room with the sim stop. I was stopped out in the live by two ticks. The sim trade remained active with a stop below 20 / Angel feet. After the Angel held and I got a confirmation candle, I re-entered long in 21’s in the live account about 10 min prior to the report. This stop was again tight but the better entry gave me a lower risk opportunity. Result: -4.0

Price began upward after the bottom was hit in the 20’s. With both trades on, I had a scale out planned with live and all out of the sim with both high targets in 28’s. Scaled out of live in 25’s just below yesterday close. Took the live trade up the Demon’s feet and closed both trades in 28’s. Results: Sim +10.0; Live +11.5

Tried a reversal from 30’s in live with ½ position and one point stop which was stopped out by two ticks before heading to initial target area of 28’s. I need to hone my entries. Great trade idea, just a little bit off with entry and/or stop. Result: -1.0

That was it for the live trades today. Played some scalps in sim during PM session by using combos as described in EWS. Played the short side with two trades. Was only looking for 2-3 points as I shorted in 28’s and again later in 26’s. Both were positive trades. Result: Trade #1 (no scale) +3.0; Trade #2 (scaled) +3.75

Again today I had a good feel for the ebb and flow with the market. After the first 1-1 ½ “Hour or Power” there were good scalp opportunities as the market settled into a six point range. I find some of the EWS concepts becoming more evident to me and slowly influencing how/where I trigger my trades. The TC set-ups continue to provide good profit opportunities.

Trade Well !

Tuesday Log – Moment of Enlightenment

2009-08-25T16:05:00.002-04:00

Last night I had one of those “aha” moments when a light bulb went on in my head. It may have been of low wattage but never the less, still a moment of enlightenment regarding EWS. I’ve been thinking more and more in relation to the “combo” set-ups and beginning to see it.

Last night as I was planning for today’s trading day, I applied my “aha” to an overnight trade. Risked 2 points to make at least 10. I set the sim trade before going to bed and bought the 18’s. First target was just below the 24Aug close where I scaled out ¾ of position. Remaining quarter of position was targeted for the previous session demon level of 31’s. Closed position in 30’s ahead of the crowd and the open. Result: +28.5

Took a live trade long just ahead of the 1000 eco reports in 33’s, just above R1 and support area was ID’d around 30. Risked 2 to make 4+. Pre-set the sell to just above yesterday high and near price target using EWS combo thinking. Result: +6.0

Went back to the well in live account and tried playing another buy on pullback to 35’s thinking the area might hold as support due to being the high yesterday. Risked 2 and was stopped out. Result: -2.0

I played around in sim during lunch session by using not so much intuitive entries but, by using EWS methodology as I experimented with some scalps. Results were mixed and basically a scratch between 3 trades.

Today I definitely “felt” the market. Although results would not necessarily reflect it, I felt the ebb and flow today. Saw some target areas, thought about combos and executed some trades using some intuition and some methodology entries and exits. All in all I felt pretty good about today’s trading. The moments of enlightenment as I learn the nuances of EWS are exciting steps from which to build on.

Trade Well !

Market Internals - The ETF Connection

2009-08-25T14:54:00.004-04:00

Here is another snap shot of some of the internals I monitor during the trading day. These are heavily weighted sectors within the S&P 500. We want to see and line up divergence, convergence and trend with the major markets we are trading.

Monday Log – The “This & That” Plan

2009-08-24T17:12:00.001-04:00

I traded both simulator and live today but mostly sim. I wasn’t able to get totally focused on the market and could not get a good read/feel for it. Started out with live and sim trades. Live I sold in high 31’s about 30 minutes after the open. Stop was set above overnight and first 30 minute high. I liked the trade idea but, as it turns out got in too early. Price ran two points above my stop and eventually dropped deep into the 20’s. I felt a slight touch of intuition but not enough to have enough conviction with the trade. Could have gotten back in short in 34’s? Result: -2.5

Sim I bought in 32’s and took the opposite side as the “other guy”. I didn’t feel as good about going long up near this edge but was thinking price would test R1 area. 1^st target was 35.75 and missed fill by 3 ticks. Price never recovered after the surge to 35. Stopped out in 30’s. Result: -2.5

Later in the day I had a scratch trade that I tried to scalp and at EOD scalped for a couple once the HL was put in around 1545. Result: +2.5

Overall the day wasn’t too bad other than not being able to pick up on the feel or rhythm of the market. Not having my attention directed towards the market definitely impacts my ability to trade. No worries though as there is always tomorrow and I enjoyed my peripheral engagement within E-Nation.

One thing I did feel good about was the extra time I took to plan my day as far as my detail went. I’ve always scratched out important numbers, eco reports, pivots, etc on my worksheet and charts. However, now I’m beginning to use it in relation to EWS and the EWS planning format. By combining the two “Market Planner” worksheets and format, I can say that it provides me with better guidance with what I want to do, what the market might do, and if it does this, I’ll do that. The “This & That” plan. Sounds like a good map to help me plot the course and get to the “secret code”.

Trade Well !

Wishing Us A Successful Trading Week Ahead & May We Have Green Grass & High Tides Forever

2009-08-22T18:59:00.004-04:00

Market Internals - Add to Your Arsenal

2009-08-22T17:56:00.003-04:00

This chart is a partial screen shot of the market internals I watch during the day. The $TRIN and VIX, Advancer/Decliner lines and Up/Down volume lines are considered by many to be a few of the most important indicators to monitor. I'll add more of my internals later.